## Developing a Rating System for SOM Hoopsby Dave Little
## Defense Ratings## One-on-one defenseThe defense card is divided into 31 separate chances (numbered 21-51) represented equally in the action deck. The defender card will be accessed on 40% of possessions, for an estimated 8 times per position per game. Each result, then, will be encountered 8/31= 0.26 times per game. The values for each result are assigned as follows:
The value of the defense portion of the card: 0.26 * (2S+2T-F) Example: 7 Steals, 2 Turnovers, 1 Foul = 0.26 * (14+4-1) = Other Players: Laettner 0.52; Blaylock 9.36; Stockton 5.2 ## X-column defenseThe X-column defense comes into play on 1/6 of the opponents' shot attempts. Since the results of the X-column readings represent opponents' shots made, the ratings will be expressed as NEGATIVE numbers. On the assumption that each position will face 20 shots per game, each player's X-column will be accessed 3.33 times per game. Each X-result costs the team a basket (2 points). Note that shot-blocks on the X-column affect the game results in the same way that missed shots do; therefore, no bonus is awarded for shot-blocks generated from the X-column. The individual X-columns are accessed in proportion to the shots faced. I have arbitrarily assigned the following modifiers: Guards/RF - O=2, P=1.33, I=0.166 Center/LF - I=2.66 (80%), O=.33 (10%), P=.33 (10%) The formula becomes : Guards/RF: Points allowed = 2 * [(2* O%) + (1.33*P%) + (0.16*I%)] Center/LF: Points= 2 * [(2.66* I%) + (0.33* O%) + (0.33* P%)] Example: I%= 0.333; O%= 0.333; P%= 0.667 Points= 2 * [(2.66*0.333) + (0.33*0.333) + (0.33*0.667)] = Other players: Laettner 2.44; Blaylock 1.54; Stockton 1.59 ## Fast-Break X-column defenseThe X-column defense readings for the FB shots are resolved in the same fashion as the other X-column shots. There is a different distribution of readings, since the action deck assigns a
defender with each fast-break. Assuming 30 fast-breaks per game (as previously), the defenders
will distribute as follows: RG 2.83; LG 2.64; RF 2.5; LF 1.0; C 1.0 The formula becomes: Position Modifier * FBX% Example: Points allowed= 1.0 * 0.667 = Other players: Laettner 0.5; Blaylock 0; Stockton 0 ## Shot-Block RatingsThe shot-block ratings from the player card are based upon a 20-point scale, and are accessed
from the Team Defense card on a die roll of 7 in the Inside and Penetrate columns. Failure to
block the shot under these circumstances results in a basket; therefore, blocks are worth 2 points.
A rough estimate of shots taken is 20 per position. 80% of shots from inside players are inside
shots, totaling 32 per game. 40% of shots from outside players are Penetration shots, totaling 24
per game. Therefore, 32+24= The formula is simple: Block Bonus = 6.22 * Block % Example: Block Rating = 4 (20%) 6.22 * 0.2 = Other players: Laettner 1.87; Blaylock 0; Stockton 0 |